- Gracenote Sports has forecasted that the United States and China will finish on the top of the overall medal tally as well as the gold medal count at Tokyo 2020.
- US finished on top with 117 medals (47 Gold, 36 Silver, 34 Bronze).
- China follows the US with 87 medals (43 Gold, 21 Silver, 23 Bronze).
- India stands on the 23rd place with 12 medals (2 Gold, 4 Silver, 6 Bronze).
- If Gracenote’s forecast stands true, it will be the best performance by Indian athletes in any Olympics.
Gracenote Sports has forecasted that India will clinch 12 medals, including two golds, in under six months at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. The company has touted the United States to finish on the top of the overall medal tally. A part of Nielsen, Gracenote is a leading entertainment data and technology company and provides data for various leagues around the world.
Gracenote has a had a solid track record while forecasting recent Olympics. Before the 2016 Rio Olympics, the company had rightfully predicted the order of the top three, i.e, US, Great Britain, China. They also correctly predicted eight of the top ten medal-winning nations then.
Gracenote uses a statistical model based on both individual and team outcomes from earlier Olympics Games, World Championships and World Cups. The data is studied and followed up with the Virtual Medal Table, which forecasts the most likely winners by country.
| Position | National Olympic Committiee (NOC) | Gold | Silver | Bronze | Overall | 2016 Position | Change from 2016 (medal tally) |
| 1 | United States | 47 | 36 | 34 | 117 | 1 | (minus) 4 |
| 2 | China | 43 | 21 | 23 | 87 | 3 | (plus) 17 |
| 3 | Russia | 25 | 19 | 22 | 66 | 4 | (plus) 11 |
| 4 | Japan | 30 | 24 | 11 | 65 | 6 | (plus) 24 |
| 5 | Australia | 17 | 16 | 11 | 44 | 10 | (plus) 15 |
| 6 | Great Britian | 13 | 12 | 17 | 42 | 2 | (minus) 25 |
| 7 | Netherlands | 16 | 9 | 16 | 41 | 11 | (plus) 22 |
| 8 | France | 6 | 16 | 15 | 35 | 7 | (minus) 7 |
| 9 | Germany | 9 | 12 | 14 | 35 | 5 | (minus) 7 |
| 10 | Italy | 7 | 8 | 17 | 32 | 9 | (plus) 4 |
| 23 | India | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 67 | (plus)10 |
According to Gracenote’s 2020 Virtual Medal Table, the US finished on top with 117 medals (47 Gold, 36 Silver, 34 Bronze). China follows the US with 87 medals (43 Gold, 21 Silver, 23 Bronze). Hosts Japan are slated to finish 4th with 65 medals (30 Gold, 24 Silver, 11 Bronze).
Both the USA and Japan are said to benefit the most from the six sports returning to the Olympics. While Basketball 3×3, karate, skateboarding, sport climbing and surfing are the new sports; Baseball/softball returns after a 12-year absence.
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The USA is predicted to win at least 20 medals, followed by Japan’s 15 and Australia’s 8 medals in sports which were not present in 2016.
The Russian Problem
Russia finished third with 66 medals (25 Gold, 19 Silver, 22 Bronze). However, Russia is currently facing a four-year ban from Olympic events for manipulating doping data. While an appeal has been made to the Court of Arbitration for Sport, the ruling is expected in a few months time.
If not overturned, a few Russian athletes are expected to compete as neutrals as the World Anti-Doping Agency has forbidden them from the use of Russian team name, flag, or anthem. And this is what entangles Gracenote’s prediction as no one knows how many athletes will participate under the Authorised Neutral Athletes or Olympic Athletes.
India among best improvers
India stands on the 23rd place with 12 medals (2 Gold, 4 Silver, 6 Bronze). If Gracenote’s forecast stands true, it will be the best performance by Indian athletes in any Olympics; surpassing London 2012 when Indian athletes brought home 6 medals.
Gracenote also reveals a massive improvement by 10 medals for Indian athletes from the disappointing 2016 Rio Olympics. India stands 6th among the top improvers between the two Olympics. Japan (+24), Netherlands (+22), China (+17), Australia (+15) and Russia (+11) are the top 5 improvers.
